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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."