Daily Homicides in Mexico Fall Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Statistics

The average count of everyday killings monthly in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new administrative statistics. But, public safety analysts have warned that homicide figures may not indicate improved national security.

Notable Decline in Daily Averages

There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September of last year. This data was shared by the director of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen in these past months is very notable,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that last month the least figure of homicides were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Fierce drug cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily military efforts to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent times. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than four times higher than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her public safety plan for an apparently steeper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety researchers cautioned that relying on homicide numbers to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is notably true given the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“This would be positive news if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder numbers and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe last year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for assessing the context of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to correctly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using monthly means of daily homicides was similarly an issue because it could obscure periods when there were especially elevated levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean makes high peaks of violence unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can point to the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still grappling with extreme bloodshed, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to express their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” Vargas concluded.