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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.